Detecting Insider Trading Patterns
Key signals and patterns that may indicate informed trading activity on prediction markets.
What is Insider Trading in Prediction Markets?
Insider trading in prediction markets occurs when someone trades based on material, non-public information about the outcome of an event. Unlike stock markets, prediction market insider trading occupies a legal gray area in many jurisdictions.
Examples of Potential Insider Activity:
- • A journalist trading before publishing a story that affects a market
- • An employee of a company trading on unreleased earnings information
- • Someone with knowledge of a political decision before announcement
- • A sports insider knowing about an injury before it's public
Key Warning Signals
Unusual Trade Size
Large trades significantly above normal volume, especially from wallets with no prior history in that market.
Suspicious Timing
Trades placed shortly before major news or announcements that significantly move the market price.
Perfect Timing Pattern
A wallet that consistently trades on the correct side just before market-moving events (high win rate + timing).
Price Impact
Trades that significantly move the market price in the correct direction before the outcome is known.
Timing Analysis
One of the most important factors in detecting suspicious activity is analyzing when trades occur relative to information events:
High Suspicion
Large trade → 1-24 hours → Market-moving news → Price moves in trader's favor → Market resolves as predicted
Moderate Suspicion
Large trade → 1-7 days → News/resolution → Consistent pattern across multiple markets
Low Suspicion
Normal-sized trade → Position held for weeks → Based on publicly available analysis
How We Detect Anomalies
Our platform uses several signals to flag potentially suspicious trading activity:
- • Volume Spike Detection: Trades significantly above 7-day average
- • Wallet Profiling: Tracking historical win rates and timing patterns
- • Timing Correlation: Matching trades to subsequent news events
- • Network Analysis: Identifying related wallets that trade together
- • Edge Scoring: Quantifying how "lucky" a trader's timing appears
Important Disclaimers
Critical Notes
- • Flagged activity is not proof of wrongdoing - it's a signal for further investigation
- • Some traders are simply skilled analysts with good timing
- • Large trades can be hedges, institutional activity, or market making
- • We provide data and analysis, not legal conclusions
- • The legal status of prediction market insider trading varies by jurisdiction
- • Always do your own research before making any decisions based on this data
Monitor Suspicious Activity
Use our alert system to track potential insider patterns in real-time.